Diesel Up R2.84 a Litre. Your Inland Leg Pays Next

Diesel went up again on Wednesday, 7 October. This time by close to 10%.

Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe announced on 5 October 2026 that fuel prices would be adjusted from Wednesday, 7 October. Wholesale diesel at 0.05% sulphur rose by 284.38 cents a litre. The cleaner 0.005% sulphur grade (50ppm) rose by 324.38 cents a litre. Petrol 95 rose 333 cents and petrol 93 rose 312 cents.

For an importer, the pump price is not the story. The truck that moves the box from the terminal to the warehouse is.

What Drove It

The Department gave three numbers that matter.

• Brent crude: the average rose from US$87.89 to US$101 a barrel over the review period. The Department pointed to continued US/Iran tensions, uncertainty over oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, higher shipping costs and falling inventories.
• International product prices: higher world diesel prices added 280.17c/l to the Basic Fuel Price for 0.05% sulphur diesel (319.63c/l for the 50ppm grade).
• The rand: flat. It moved from R16.213 to R16.212 to the dollar on average, which took just 0.22c/l off diesel.

On top of that, the slate levy, which recovers past under-recoveries, rose 4.38c/l, from 83.28c/l to 87.66c/l. The cumulative slate stood at a negative R10.456 billion at the end of August, according to the CEF statement issued for the Department.

So this is an oil-price shock, not a currency one.

The New Price in Gauteng

The CEF annexure sets the Gauteng wholesale price of 0.05% sulphur diesel at 3,195.49c/l from 7 October to 3 November 2026. That compares with 2,911.11c/l from 2 September. The 50ppm grade sits at 3,279.89c/l.

Taxes are a big slice of that. In the Gauteng build-up for diesel, the fuel levy is 416c/l and the Road Accident Fund levy is 225c/l, before the 87.66c/l slate levy. The diesel fuel levy is back at full rate after the temporary cuts earlier this year. SARS gazetted its return to 393c/l on diesel from 1 July 2026. The 416c/l in the CEF table is the general fuel levy plus the carbon fuel levy.

Actual pump prices for diesel are not regulated, so what a fleet pays at the pump will differ.

What It Means for the Invoice

Customs duty and import VAT do not move. South Africa values imports on an FOB basis, so the inland leg after landing is outside the customs value. This hike does not change any duty line.

The landed cost does move.

Freight News reports the arithmetic for a truck burning 4,000 litres a month: about R11,375 more on 0.05% diesel and about R12,975 more on 50ppm. Road Freight Association CEO Gavin Kelly told Freight News that fuel makes up 35% to 55% of a transporter's operating cost, depending on the operation, vehicle and route.

Put those together and a near-10% jump in wholesale diesel works out, on our own rough arithmetic and using the 0.05% grade, to roughly 3.4% to 5.4% on a haulage rate if the full fuel cost is passed through. That is an illustration, not a quote. Your carrier's surcharge clause decides the real figure.

When you will see it depends on your contract.

• Spot loads and quotes priced this week are likely to carry the new diesel price now.
• Contracts with a monthly fuel-surcharge or diesel-index clause will reset at the next adjustment date in the clause.
• Fixed-rate contracts may hold until the next review. PFS Container Division chair Aven Naidu said in Freight News that most freight rates are not adjusted until then, so operators absorb the cost in the meantime. Expect that conversation at renewal.

If you buy on DDP or delivered terms, the supplier or forwarder carries the inland cost first. Watch for it in the next quote, not the current invoice.

Our Take

1. Update the inland freight line in your landed-cost model now. Use the diesel index your carrier's clause names. If there isn't one, the Gauteng 0.05% wholesale price of 3,195.49c/l is a fair reference for October. Leave the duty and import VAT lines alone. This hike doesn't change them.
2. Read your haulage contracts for the fuel clause. Find the index it uses, the base price, and the reset date. That tells you when this lands on your invoice.
3. Ask for the surcharge in writing. A fuel surcharge should trace to a published diesel price. If a carrier's increase is far above what the clause allows, query it.
4. Re-check delivered and DDP quotes. Suppliers quoting delivered into Gauteng from Durban are likely to re-price the road leg. Compare like for like against the old quote.
5. Watch 4 November. The current prices run to 3 November 2026. The next adjustment is expected on Wednesday, 4 November. With Brent averaging US$101 over the last review period and the slate still deep in the negative, there is no sign yet of relief.